According to a recent report by Carbon Brief, 2024 is on track to become the hottest year ever recorded, with a 95% chance of surpassing the 2023 record. This warming is driven by the lasting impacts of El Niño and ongoing global warming, as numerous temperature records were broken worldwide in the first half of the year, confirming the trend of increasing global averages.

Record Temperatures in 2024

In the first months of 2024, several global temperature records were set, with 63 countries experiencing the hottest June ever. Additionally, over 138 countries saw new heat peaks in the last 12 months. This increase was not confined to a single region, severely impacting parts of South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia.

Impact of El Niño and Global Warming

Although the El Niño phenomenon, which contributed to extreme heat in late 2023, is weakening, its residual effects continue to push temperatures higher in 2024. This natural phenomenon, combined with human-induced climate change, has further accelerated global temperature rises. Even with the possible arrival of La Niña conditions later in the year, its impact will probably be insufficient to reverse the already high temperatures.

Decline of Antarctic Sea Ice

Another concerning factor in 2024 is the continued reduction of Antarctic sea ice, which is approaching record-low levels. This alarming trend in polar regions has severe implications for rising sea levels and the ecosystems that depend on these areas.

Likelihood of 2024 Becoming the Hottest Year

Based on current trends, there is a 95% chance that 2024 will become the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the record set in 2023. Even with the possible transition to a La Niña climate pattern, which typically causes cooling, the impact of global warming is so significant that these conditions are unlikely to reverse the temperature increase.

Global Consequences

The ongoing extreme heat will have serious global consequences. More intense and frequent heatwaves may worsen drought conditions, increase wildfires, intensify extreme storms, and threaten food security in various regions. Furthermore, public health is at increasing risk, with more people exposed to dangerous weather conditions.

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Rising global temperatures are a stark reminder of the urgent need for more decisive climate action. With the future increasingly uncertain, it is up to the worldwide community to step up efforts to mitigate climate change and prepare populations for the inevitable impacts. The race to curb global warming has never been more critical.

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Want to learn more about how global warming and El Niño are shaping 2024? Check out the full article that inspired this piece and explore all the details of the Carbon Brief report.