In March 2022, the Conger ice shelf, located in East Antarctica, experienced a dramatic collapse that surprised scientists worldwide. In less than a week, this massive 1,200 km² structure fragmented into icebergs, demonstrating the increasing vulnerability of polar ice caps to climate change. A study published in the Nature Geoscience journal revealed the factors that led to the collapse and highlighted its implications for Antarctica's future.

The Rapid Collapse of the Conger Ice Shelf

The collapse of the Conger ice shelf stood out for its magnitude and rapid speed, challenging the perception of stability in East Antarctica.

The ice shelf is in one of the continent's traditionally considered most stable regions and contributes to the global climate balance. East Antarctica contains most of the planet's land ice, which is paramount for regulating sea levels and maintaining the stability of polar ecosystems.

Despite this, in just six days, Conger completely disintegrated, transforming into icebergs now floating in the Antarctic Ocean. This was one of the fastest collapses ever recorded in an area historically viewed as resilient.

Decades of Gradual Weakening and Factors Accelerating the Collapse

Although the collapse of the Conger ice shelf occurred abruptly, it was preceded by decades of structural weakening caused by ongoing processes.

Since 1994, the ice shelf's thickness has decreased from 200 meters to 130 meters, with thinning accelerated by basal melting from warmer ocean waters. Simultaneously, the emergence of cracks along the structure allowed salty water infiltration, further exacerbating its weakening. This gradual process left Conger vulnerable to external forces, creating the conditions for the final collapse.

The catastrophic outcome was intensified by specific climatic and oceanographic conditions that triggered the rupture. At the time of the collapse, an intense storm created ocean swells and strong winds, further destabilizing the weakened structure.

Simultaneously, since 2010, changes in ocean currents began bringing slightly warmer waters to the region, accelerating the ice shelf's basal melting. The combination of these factors resulted in the rapid disintegration of Conger.

Implications for East Antarctica

While the collapse of the Conger ice shelf did not immediately influence global sea levels, it serves as a concerning warning about East Antarctica's increasing vulnerability to climate change.

This region, which contains about ten times more ice than West Antarctica, is fundamental for maintaining the global sea level balance. The fall of Conger highlights that even areas considered stable are being significantly affected by climate transformations, increasing the risk of similar collapses in the future.

Nearby Conger is the Denman Glacier, an immense ice mass that can raise global sea levels by up to 1.5 meters. Should the shelf supporting Denman collapse, the consequences could be irreversible, with catastrophic implications for the planet.

Challenges for Climate Projections

The collapse of Conger also exposed limitations in current climate models, which underestimated East Antarctica's vulnerability. Previous studies predicted that this region could gain ice mass over the century due to increased precipitation.

However, the Conger event indicates that East Antarctic ice shelves are more susceptible to global warming than previously thought, necessitating urgent revisions in computational models. Besides, if other shelves exhibit similar behavior, East Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise will be much greater than current estimates indicate.

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Access the whole study published in the Nature Geoscience journal and read the original report on Science News to understand better how climate change impacts Antarctica.